This week’s question: “It seems like there’s no end to rising gas prices. When can we expect some relief?” Gas prices normally head lower in July, and I think that’ll be the case this year.

We have 27 years of data on gasoline, and price changes in July normally see a drop by 1%.

Between 1981 and 2007, July has — on average — been a very kind month to motorists. By July, the refinery switch from heating oil to gasoline is long over and refiners have built up their inventory for the summer, so the price generally lets up.

Of course, not every July brings a price break.

July 2005 was a big exception when gas prices rose by 6%, and July 2006 saw prices rise as well.  But in both those years the economy was roaring and motorists were on the roads.

This year, the number of miles being driven is actually shrinking.  Combine that with record high gas prices which keeps many low MPG vehicles parked and I expect this July to bring some relief at the pump.

I don’t think we’ll get that sort of relief, but I do think prices will drop over the course of the month.

Source: U.S. Dept Of Energy, Energy Info Administration

In our weekly “Ask the Economist” feature, our resident economist, Mike Donnelly, will tackleyour questions about the economy. If you’ve got a question — and no topic is too big or small — you’d like him to field, e-mail us at economist@pbp.com or leave your queries in the comments section.

Tags: Average prices, Gas prices, Gas relief, Motorists